Declarations of imminent military action in Iran are nothing new, but a worried Admiral Mullen, a wary Ehud Barak, and a wargaming Revolutionary Guard have restored speculation over a potential strike by Israel or the United States to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program. So will Israel attack Iran? Depends whom you ask:
A: Yes, “barring a loss of nerve or political will by Israel”
A: On balance, yes. “Add it all up, as I do in this week’s column, and you’re looking at a lot of the system providing weak obstacles and more than a little sub rosa push toward war.”
A: Absolutely not. After failure in Lebanon, “the chance that the Israeli government will attack the region again is almost nil.”
A: Not likely. “The odds are very low. When Israel bombed Osirak in 1981, and when they bombed Syria more recently, there was “radio silence” before and after the operation. Whereas now with Iran, it’s been a much more public campaign. If the Israelis were serious about doing it, there would be a much more studied silence. I don’t think they want to do it and are hoping to intimidate Iran into compromise.”
A: Maybe. “The likelihood of Israel bombing Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities is not zero, but it is not as high as many experts seem to think.”
A: Nah, we’re on the brink of an Israeli-Syrian U.S.-Iranian understanding. “The Cold War interregnum is coming to a close and a new era is dawning.”
A: No. “What we’re seeing is a lot of signaling going on.”
A: Yes. “Missile launches are the ultimate in provocation,” ánd this “in combination with uncertainty of the upcoming U.S. elections…makes an attack by Israel on Iran almost certain.”
A: Unlikely, since an attack requires access to U.S.-controlled Iraqi airspace and Secretary of Defense Bob Gates “would not be on board for an Israeli strike.”
A: Possibly. “Numerous declarations by very senior figures in Israel have placed Israel in the position where it would seem committed to act against Iran even unilaterally”
A: No. Admiral Mike Mullen told the IDF “that Israel did not have a green light to attack Iran and that it would not receive U.S. support for such a move.”
A: No way. U.S. and Israeli threats are “a funny joke.”
A: Potentially. The current estimated probability is between 32 and 35 percent. (NB: very low trading volume)
A: Unlikely, no, no, yes, who knows? Five for the price of one! Respectively: “a strike is still less rather than more likely, although I am increasingly concerned,” “very, very unlikely,” “it would come at a great expense to Israel,” “the writing on the wall looks deadly serious,” “if Israel were going to strike Iran, it might have already done so.”
A: No. This is Tupac-Biggie all over again.
For my part, count me in with Gates and Kaplan. I think we’re watching some very scary signaling, but any attack is far from imminent.
